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* * *
The
Ultimate Fighting Championship had finally checkmated
Nate Diaz.
After over a year of posturing and off-and-on negotiations, the UFC
got Diaz to agree that the last fight of his contract would be
against
Khamzat
Chimaev, the undefeated Chechen destroyer who would surely send
him out of the organization with a loss. The
UFC
279 main event was a fight with a terrible risk/reward ratio
for Diaz against a man a decade his junior, and that was reflected
in the 12-to-1 betting odds against him. Diaz would likely get
routed, and the discussion after the bout would all be about
Chimaev moving on to vie for the welterweight championship.
The UFC’s strategy in these situations is often misunderstood,
being framed as a purely punitive measure focused on devaluing
fighters before they join its competitors. That is, of course, part
of the equation, but the UFC is also looking at future negotiations
with its actions. By creating a system where fighters who extend
their contracts rather than going to free agency are rewarded with
desirable fights and fighters who do not extend their contracts are
instead given undesirable fights, it encourages all fighters to
re-up when the UFC wants them to. That, in turn, diminishes the
chances of free agents leaving or leveraging multiple simultaneous
bids into more money.
The UFC thought Diaz would be another example of the dangers of not
re-signing with the company when given the opportunity. Instead,
Diaz leaves the UFC as popular as ever and could score the biggest
paycheck of his career next time out, with help from an unlikely
friend: the man he labeled a “lame, scared, boring rookie.”
Chimaev’s egregious miss on the scale allowed Diaz to veto a fight
he never wanted in the first place and instead settle on a faded,
albeit talented
Tony
Ferguson moving up in weight after losing his last four fights.
It was like preparing for the Buffalo Bills and finding out you’re
getting the New York Jets instead.
Diaz and Ferguson weren’t fighting at the level they would have
five years ago, but it didn’t much matter to the crowd. These are
two fighters who have earned respect and love with their thrilling
performances over the past decade, and the fans in Las Vegas was
clearly happy with the bout they received. Diaz was generally
getting the better of the exchanges and was up 30-27 on two cards
when he tapped Ferguson with a guillotine in the fourth round. It
wasn’t the sort of performance that suggested Diaz is ready to
challenge for the UFC welterweight title—or
Bellator
MMA welterweight title for that matter—but it was the sort of
performance that made fans want to see him next time out. What
looked like potentially a dark weekend for Diaz a week ago ended up
a celebration.
A fortunate turn of events shouldn’t seem that out of the ordinary
for Diaz at this stage of his career. His fighting career has been
blessed with good fortune from the beginning. Few fighters entered
the UFC with as much built-in goodwill as he did as the brother of
the perennial crowd favorite
Nick Diaz. He
was beloved practically by relation, and his fighting style quickly
added to his appeal. He also benefitted from an unfortunate injury
suffered by
Manny
Gamburyan attempting a takedown in “The Ultimate Fighter 5”
final after the Armenian won the first round, giving Diaz an
accolade that could be pointed to the rest of his career.
When Diaz suffered setbacks, it never much mattered to the fans.
Some of his biggest fights were blowout losses:
Rory
MacDonald in front of 55,000 people,
Benson
Henderson for the lightweight title and
Rafael dos
Anjos in a UFC on Fox co-feature. In each case, it didn’t
affect fans’ interest in Diaz’s fights all that much, and he was
back the next time with plenty of intrigue.
Even Diaz’s biggest break came by happenstance. If dos Anjos hadn’t
gotten injured so close to his fight with
Conor
McGregor, Diaz likely never would have gotten to fight the
Irish superstar. With more time,
Jose Aldo
would have stepped up as the replacement.
Frankie
Edgar happened to be dealing with a minor injury, too, so Diaz
got the call. It led to his biggest win and his biggest paychecks,
and without all those circumstances, it would never have taken
place, just like the circumstances on Sept. 9.
We’ll see if Diaz’s fortune holds up next month. If
Jake Paul can
defeat
Anderson
Silva, a boxing match between Diaz and Paul is likely next and
has the potential to be a box-office bonanza. If, on the other
hand, Silva hands Paul his first loss, the novelty of a fight
between Paul and Diaz will be greatly diminished. Given how these
things so often go for the favored son of Stockton, California, you
shouldn’t count out Diaz getting his big fight.